Vinyl records with a scratch and history;  What do they have in common?  Just like a marred vinyl recording can repeat itself over and over, history, especially  real estate history, can be repeated.  Sometimes more than once. The impact of Covid 19 on the Silicon Valley real estate market is not new in the sense that previous world events have also caused a lapse in our regular seasonal pattern; a hiccup if you will.  The Gulf War, 911 Attack on the World Trade Center, The Bank Bailout of 2008, all caused a momentary paralysis in the market.  And with all of these events there followed a robust rebound in the real estate market. So the record has skipped again.  And with the recent lifting of residential home showing restrictions a strong rebound in sales activity is starting to occur.  For those readers who are not quite sure what a skipping vinyl record sounds like, this might be a good time to give Mom and Dad a call, not a text.  They would love to tell you about their favorite LP recording that got scratched.  For the rest of you, read on.  Here is a forecast from the CEO of another real estate firm.  Not sure if he's old enough to remember vinyl recordings :-)

• The real estate market has already hit bottom and started bouncing back. Since the start of COVID and SIP, the market took a *very* short dip in terms of new listings, and sales. However, we are beginning to see things trending upwards as we enter the Summer Market.

• Catastrophes create movement. "After 9/11, things froze in NY for three months, but when it bounced back, it was bigger than ever before. People who were living downtown wanted to move uptown. People who lived in Manhattan who wanted to live in other boroughs. People in all of New York City who wanted to move to New Jersey or Connecticut. It created movement — and this moment will be no different." We are seeing what could be called a "reshuffling" of homeowners. With the introduction of virtual workspace, people are realizing they can work from ANYWHERE. Areas or communities previously ruled out due to commute are now in the picture. People are beginning to reevaluate their locations, and home/work/ life balance.

• Buyer demand is strong. "Buyers are seeing record-low interest rates, and have a sense that now’s a good time to get a good price. I don’t know a buyer who’s saying, “Let me wait two years to lock in a really good price.” It’s still to be seen whether this increased demand is larger than the impact of the 20 million Americans who’ve lost their jobs in the last two months. But looking at the data, our company’s client base has disproportionately not been impacted economically."

• Summer is the new spring. Summers are historically slower because a lot of inventory sells in the spring, and because many people are on vacations. Not this year. The spring market wasn’t eliminated, it was deferred. That inventory is still going to come. And everyone’s canceling their international vacations. -- R Reffkin, Compass